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VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCED AND ITS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA BETWEEN “2016 – 2020”

Robinson Amos Ibuchi1*, Joseph Dagogo2 & Benson Tina Ibienebaka3

Department of Mathematics & Statistics,

Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Rivers State, Nigeria Email: ibuchirobinsonamos@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

This research work investigates the relationship between agricultural produced and its economic growth in Nigeria using the VAR (vector autoregression) approach. It adopted the secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria covering the monthly average data period from 2016 to 2020. The unit root test for stationarity found all variable to be stationary at first difference 1(1). Johansen cointegration test conducted found out that there are at least three (3) cointegrating equations at 5% level of significant indicating a long run relationship between the variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) reveals that economy would restore its previous equilibrium by 9.4496 % speed of adjustment. A unit increase in agricultural exports would bring a proportionate increase in the Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria.

Keywords: Agricultural products, Stationary Time Series, VAR (vector autoregression), Johansen cointegration test, and the Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria.


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2012 CRISIS AND EMERGING OF CONFLICT IN MALI

Category : Uncategorized

                                                                 Jibrin Ubale Yahaya

                   Department of Political Science

 National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN)

 

 Abstract

The Mali War is an ongoing armed conflict that has started in January 2012 between the Northern and Southern parts of Mali in Africa. On 16 January 2012, several insurgent groups began fighting a campaign against the Malian government for independence or greater autonomy for Northern Mali, which they called Azawad. This paper has analysis the activities of National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), an organization fighting to make many communities of Mali an independent homeland for the Tuareg people, which had taken control of the region during April 2012. However, on the same  22nd  March 2012, President Amadou Toumani Touré was ousted in a coup d’état over his handling of the crisis, a month before a presidential election was to have taken place. Mutinous soldiers, calling themselves the National Committee for the Restoration of Democracy and State (CNRDR), took control and suspended the constitution of Mali. The paper has diagnoses the consequence of the instability following the coup, Mali’s three largest Northern cities of Kidal, Gao and Timbuktu were overrun by the rebels on three consecutive days.  On 5th April 2012, after the capture of Douentza, the MNLA said that it had accomplished its goals and called off its offensive. The following day, it proclaimed the independence of Northern Mali from the rest of the country, renaming it Azawad. This paper would recommend that peoples in African continent need to be allowed to elect their leaders who would serve the needs and demands of their peoples to avoid discrimination on religion, tribal and racial difference between the various regions in the Mali and elected leaders needs to provide an extensive strategic framework that could address the malingering issues of insecurity, unemployment, injustice, corruption and poverty in Mali in particular and Africa in general.

Keywords: Crisis, Conflict, National Movement, Restoration and Malian Government


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MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF COVID-19 ON A CONSUMING OIL ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Joseph Fefa, Bridget N. Mile & Victor U. Ijirshar

Department of Economics

 Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria

ABSTRACT       

This study examines the macroeconomic effect of COVID-19 on the Nigerian consuming oil economy. Descriptive tests and correlation analysis were used for data analysis. The study found that the COVID-19 pandemic has portended severe economic consequences on the Nigerian economy leading to unprecedented oil price crash and lower demand which resulted in negative effects on key macroeconomic variables in the country. The COVID 19 pandemic has also exerted negative effect on the exchange rate, real growth rate, consumer price indices, and unemployment in the country. Therefore, the study recommends for the full implementation of the Nigeria “Economic Sustainability Plan” to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Nigeria’s economy. The study further recommends that the Nigerian government should support agricultural production with the aim of diversifying her economy to improve export potentials and also engage SMEs through granting of soft loans with extended moratorium or grants to SMEs.

Keywords: COVID-19, Consumer price index, Crude oil price, Exchange rate, and real growth rate

JEL Classification:        E31, I15, O47, O24


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EX-MILITARY GENERALS IN CRUDE POLITICS OF CRUDE OIL IN NIGERIA: IMPACT ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, NATIONAL COHESION AND STABILITY EFFORTS

Irechukwu, Nnameziri Sunday

Department Of Political Science Faulty Of Social Sciences

Niger Delta University, Wilberforce Island, Bayelsa State

ABSTRACT

The paper examined the issues of political system failures, ideological aberration, and absence of constitutional democracy and abuse of the rule of law critically. It touch lighted the way and manners politics of the Oil crude characterize by divisive programmes, hate  and non-inclusion affected Nigeria development efforts, past and  present and state from its legitimate responsibilities of security of lives, properties and sovereignty. It argued that interest in the oil-crude mono-economy and huge revenue income accruing promoted selfish power grasp corruption and inability of the leaders to consolidate and utilize the concepts, of strength in abundance and diversity of: natural, material and human resources, especially, the Youth potentials. These constituted further impediments to efforts to diversify the mono-cultured oil economy and interest for science and appropriate technology to move the nation forward and to discourage the essence of incompatibles, especially, of political agenda between the north and the south. The paper emphasized that sustainable activities of the ex-military Generals in Nigeria’s political power tussles and economic policies’ constitute a clog and impediment to efforts to promote national cohesion and stability. Frustration aggression theory is considered more appropriate to the study as it explained cause and implication on socio-economic struggles, multi-dimensional development processes, and attainments of peace and unity of any nations, developing or developed. Survey method of examination is utilized through literature reviews. It’s further opinion of the paper that development can only thrive where crude politics is not existence and where there is peaceful environment; hence, it is a matter of decision, good planning and execution among leaders. 

 


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NEGATIVE SEXUAL EXPERIENCES AS PREDICTORS OF DEPRESSION AMONG WOMEN

Mgbenkemdi Ejike. H& Aboh Uche J

Department of Psychology

Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Agbani Enugu

                                                                     Email:iamejike@yahoo.co.uk & james.aboh@esut.edu.ng

ABSTRACT

This study investigated negative sexual experiences as predictors of depression among women. A total of 107 participants comprising 62 female nurses and 45 female administrative staff of Federal Neuropsychiatric hospital Enugu using available sampling techniques were drawn for the study. Two sets of instruments were used namely; SES – Sexual Experiences Survey (Koss, Gidyez & Wisniewski, 1987); and CES-D – Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale (Rudloff, 1977). A cross-sectional design was adopted; while hierarchical multiple regression analysis was applied as a statistic to test the hypothesis which stated that negative sexual experiences would significantly predict depression among women. The result showed that a strong positive correlation was observed between negative sexual experiences and depression among women r(107) = .47at p<.001. Meaning the increase in negative sexual experiences would equally bring about an increase in depression among women. Further, negative sexual experiences accounted for an additional 25.5% (ΔR2= 17.7%) variation in depression and this change in R2was significant, F(10, 96) = 3.29, p<.001) and the relationship between variables were strong(R =.51). However, only negative sexual experiences significantly and positively predicted depression β = .45, t(96) = 4.77, p<.001. It was concluded that the most important predictor of depression among women was negative sexual experiences which predicted strongly and remarkably depression among women. The findings were discussed in relation to pieces of literature reviewed and suggestions made.

Keywords: Negative Sexual experiences, Nurses, Administrative Staff, Depression and women


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PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, DEVELOPMENT AND NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMENT: EMERGENCE AND PRINCIPLES

Dominic Shimawua

Department of Public Administration,

Faculty of Management Science, Veritas University, Abuja

Email: dshimawua@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

New Public Management refers to a set of reforms that have come to radically redefine the nature of public sector organizations. Being inspired by a broad management ideology the reforms have brought forward ideas about ‘real’ organizations – i.e. having clear and unique identity, being able to plan and carry out rational decisions, and having well-defined boundaries and hierarchical structures. These ideas go hand in hand with rationales of administration of public sector organizations which can be seen both as transformative in the process of introduction of NPM and as an outcome of this process. However, there are few criticisms of the doctrines of NPM from the political perspective and few of the developing countries have become successful in public sector reform. This paper attempts to pinpoint the emergence, principles and criticisms of NPM considering its principles.

Keywords: Public Administration, New Public Management, Principles, Efficiency    


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SEXUAL HARASSMENT AND JOB PERFORMANCE OF OFFICE STAFF IN EDUCATIONAL TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS IN RIVERS STATE

Epelle Gloria, Amadi, Mary Anyankpele & Nweke, Emmanuel Onyekachi

Department of Educational Management

Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Rumuolumeni, Port Harcourt

E-mail: emy1242000@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

This paper delved into Sexual harassment and job performance of office workers in educational tertiary institutions in Rivers State.  The paper adopted the desk approach in that secondary literature materials from internet, textbooks, journals, magazines were deployed in the paper. The paper considered the concepts of sexual harassment, office worker, and causes of sexual harassment in the office, management sanctions, consequences and panacea to sexual harassment to tertiary educational institutions in Rivers State. The paper concluded that sexual harassment should not be allowed in any education office in tertiary institutions in Rivers State.  The paper suggested that management should make local rules to guide against occurrences of the considered ugly trend and the conduct of the staff should show business consciousness.

Keywords: Office Staff, Tertiary institutions, Sexual harassment, Job performance


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SOIL CONSERVATION PRACTICES AMONG FARMERS IN DOMA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA

Category : Uncategorized

Iliyasu M. Anzaku1, Chunwate B. Thomas2, Ahmed Y. Ubangari3,

1Department of Science, School of Continuing Education, Bayero University, Kano,

2Department of Environmental Management, Nasarawa State University, Keffi,

3Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Nasarawa State Polytechnic, Lafia.

Email: mmaman.iliyasu@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

This research work assess the knowledge of soil conservation practices among farmers in Doma Local Government Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria. Data for the study were sourced from several sources that that could be broadly be classified into two: primary and secondary data. Data collected for the study were analyzed using descriptive statistics in the form of simple percentage and presented in chart format. The result revealed that 79% of the farmers owned the farmland the cultivated. 88% of the respondents have admitted that they noticed soil fertility changes on their farm. This occurs as a result of depletion in soil components which contributes to soil fertility. 80% of farmers noticed crop yield change on their farm. The findings also reveals that 95% of farmers were of the opinion that the nature of change in their crop yield has be on a increase. Inorganic fertilizer is the most popular commodity employed by farmers as fertility measure within the study area. 83.02% of the respondents of the study were of the assertion the usage is beneficial. The study recommends that there is a need to look into the possibility of initiating provision of motivational incentives to raise the capacity of farmers by provision of loan and training to enable them adopt improved measures of soil fertility in the study area. 

KEY WORDS: Soil, Conservation, Practices, farmers, degradation.


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PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, DEVELOPMENT AND NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMENT: EMERGENCE AND PRINCIPLES

Category : Uncategorized

Dominic Shimawua

Department of Public Administration,

Faculty of Management Science, Veritas University, Abuja

Email: dshimawua@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

New Public Management refers to a set of reforms that have come to radically redefine the nature of public sector organizations. Being inspired by a broad management ideology the reforms have brought forward ideas about ‘real’ organizations – i.e. having clear and unique identity, being able to plan and carry out rational decisions, and having well-defined boundaries and hierarchical structures. These ideas go hand in hand with rationales of administration of public sector organizations which can be seen both as transformative in the process of introduction of NPM and as an outcome of this process. However, there are few criticisms of the doctrines of NPM from the political perspective and few of the developing countries have become successful in public sector reform. This paper attempts to pinpoint the emergence, principles and criticisms of NPM considering its principles.

Keywords: Public Administration, New Public Management, Principles, Efficiency    


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SARIMA MODELLING OF MONTHLY RAINFALL IN RIVERS STATE OF NIGERIA

1Love Cherukei Nnoka , 2Ifeoma Better Lekara-Bayo & 2Ette Harrison Etuk

1Department of Statistics, Elechi Amadi Polytechnic, Rumuola, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

2Department of Mathematics, Rivers State University, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Email: nnokalove@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

This work is about seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling of monthly rainfall of Rivers State of Nigeria from 1981 to 2016. The time plot shows seasonality of period 12 months as typical of rainfall data. Even though the Augmented Dickey Fuller test of unit root ceritifies the series as stationary the correlogram shows an undulating sinusoidal pattern of seasonality of period 12, as expected. The correlogram shows positive spikes at lag 12 and comparable spikes at the autocorrelation function (ACF) at lags 11 and 13 and spikes at lags 12 and 24 on the partial autocorrelation function (PACF). This suggests the involvement of a seasonal autoregressive order of 1 or 2 and a moving average non-seasonal order of 1 and a seasonal order of 1. This means the involvement of a SARIMA(0,0,1)x(1,1,1)12 model. Other models worth testing are SARIMA(0,0,1)x(2,1,1)12 model and a SARIMA(1,0,1)x(0,1,1)12 model. By AIC and R2 the lattest model was chosen. The correlogram of the residuals showed no significant spike, an evidence of model adequacy. The forecasts of 2017 were obtained finally.

Keywords: Rainfall, Rivers State, Nigeria, SARIMA modeling