Category Archives: International Journal of Science and Advanced Innovation Research, volume 6, number 3, 2021

TIME SERIES MODELING OF CRUDE OIL EXPORT IN NIGERIA: AN ITERATIVE APPROACH

Idongesit Michael Umoh & Ette Harrison Etuk

Department of Mathematics/Statistics, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt,

Department of Mathematics, Rivers State University, Port Harcourt,

idongesitumoh683@gmail.com ; ettetuk@yahoo.com, ettehetuk@gmail.com, etuk.ette@ust.edu.ng

ABSTRACT

It has been argued in recent times that the quantity of crude oil export increases as the year increases as well as production of crude oil, yet Nigerian economy decreases as the year increases. Hence, there is need to evaluate or build a model in order to help policy makers forecast the quantity of crude oil export in Nigeria. The aim of this paper is to fit an appropriate model to the crude oil export in Nigeria. Therefore, we estimated the autoregressive integrated moving averages: ARIMA(1,1,1), ARIMA(2,11), ARIMA(1,12), ARIMA(2,1,2) SARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,1)_12, SARIMA(1,1,1)(2,1,1)₂₄ and their various autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF). Based on Ljung-Box statistics, the ACF and PACF, we choose SARIMA(1,1,1)(2,1,1)₂₄ as the appropriate model. This model has also, the least mean squared Error (MSE). Therefore we forecasted Nigeria’s crude oil export with SARIMA(1,1,1)(2,1,1)₂₄; the results indicate that Nigeria crude oil export will decrease in the long run therefore there is need for diversification of Nigeria economy.

SOLUTION TO MATHEMATICAL MODEL ON MALARIA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS USING HOMOTOPY PERTURBATION METHOD (HPM)

Agada David Ojochogwu¹*, Omale David¹, Nurudeen Raimi² &Abimbola Olanrewaju Michael³

¹Department of Mathematical Science, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Nigeria

²Department of Physics, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Nigeria

³Department of Mathematics Education, University of Lagos, Nigeria

^*Email: agadadavido2@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Mathematical models have been used to provide an explicit framework for understanding malaria transmission dynamics in human population for over 100 years, with the disease still thriving and threatening to be a major source of death and disability due to changed environmental and socio- economic conditions. In recent years, many more of the numerical methods were used to solve a wide range of mathematical, physical, and engineering problems both linear and non-linear. In this work, we used the Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) to obtain the analytic solution of the differential equations of the (SIR-SI) mathematical model and we apply the Bellman and Cooke’s theorem of stability to verify the stability of the model at equilibrium state. This work confirms the power, simplicity and efficacy of the method, also this method is a suitable method for solving any partial differential equations or system of partial differential equations as well.

SOLUTION TO MATHEMATICAL MODEL ON MALARIA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS USING HOMOTOPY PERTURBATION METHOD (HPM)

Agada David Ojochogwu¹*, Omale David¹, Nurudeen Raimi² &Abimbola Olanrewaju Michael³

¹Department of Mathematical Science, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Nigeria

²Department of Physics, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Nigeria

³Department of Mathematics Education, University of Lagos, Nigeria

^*Email: agadadavido2@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Mathematical models have been used to provide an explicit framework for understanding malaria transmission dynamics in human population for over 100 years, with the disease still thriving and threatening to be a major source of death and disability due to changed environmental and socio- economic conditions. In recent years, many more of the numerical methods were used to solve a wide range of mathematical, physical, and engineering problems both linear and non-linear. In this work, we used the Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) to obtain the analytic solution of the differential equations of the (SIR-SI) mathematical model and we apply the Bellman and Cooke’s theorem of stability to verify the stability of the model at equilibrium state. This work confirms the power, simplicity and efficacy of the method, also this method is a suitable method for solving any partial differential equations or system of partial differential equations as well.

Definition of Variables S = Susceptible human                I = Infected human          R = Recovered human/Removed human Iv = Infected vector                   π= human birth rate           λ= vector birth rate = Contact rate                        =Natural death rate         = Death rate due to disease = Transmission rate between susceptible vector and infected human ω = Transmission rate between susceptible vector and infected human

DEVELOPMENT OF FORENSIC FRAMEWORK FOR POST CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION COST

Solomon Michael Ojo¹, Afeez Olalekan Sanni ², Taiwo Rotimi Ebenezer³

¹Department of Quantity Surveying, Moshood Abiola Polytechnic, Abeokuta, Ogun State,

²Department of Quantity Surveying, The Bells University of Technology, Ota, Ogun State,

³Department of Quantity Surveying, Ministry of Housing, Oke-Moson, Ogun State,

Email:goodsolex1@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

The need to ensure economical and transparent cost delivery of construction project is a major challenge in the construction industry.  This study addressed this challenge by postulating a framework for carrying out forensic analysis of post contract construction cost (FAPCCC). The study identified the rightful initiator(s) of FAPCCC, identified and evaluated the prerequistes that necessitates FAPCCC, validated procedure for carrying out FAPCCC and postulated a procedural framework for carrying out FAPCCC.Quantitative methodology was adopted. Structured questionnairerandomly distributed using google form to various categories of Qunatity Surveyors targetingthe six geopolitical zones of Nigeria via online due to Covid-19 pandemic,formed the basis for data collection. Forty-five (45) responded and the obtained data presented in tables,were analysed using frequency distribution and percentage. Analysed data were discussed in comparison with extant literature and conclusion drawn. The findings of the study revealed that the client, project manager and project financier like Tetfund could initiates FAPCCC. Prerequisties for FAPCCC include suspected fraud, suspected collusion and final account excceded the initial budget without increase in scope of project, Timing for FAPCCC is dependent on each initiator but most respondents forty-one (41) out of forty-five (45) favoured carryong out FAPCCC after each interim valuation by consultant Quantity Surveying firms. Possible stages in carrying out FAPCCC were identifies and validated through the repsonses obtained from the target population. A flexible payment method (negotiation) proved to be most preferred as payment approach to forensic analysts and culprits should be responsible for the payment. The study concluded that the FAPCCC clause should be included in letter of commisioning of consultants and award letter to the contractor to discourage illegal activities that undermine financial probity of construction projects. The postulated framework would guide engaged professional Quantity Surveyors to carry out effective FAPCCC.

Keywords:construction cost, construction project, forensicframework, post contract

 

ASSESSMENT OF PHYSICOCHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF BOREHOLE WATER QUALITY IN SECONDARY SCHOOL IN PORT HARCOURT METROPOLIS, RIVER STATE.

¹Effiong, E. E.,²Ubong U. I.,&³Ogbuji, S. I.

^1&2Institute of Geosciences and Environmental Management, Rivers State University, Port Harcourt.

³ Dept. of Geography and Environmental Management, Imo State University Owerri.Email: sogbujiic@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

This study examined the physic-chemical characteristics of water from boreholes in secondary schools in Port Harcourt Metropolis in order to determine the suitability of such water for human consumption. Analysis of the water quality parameters were conducted and compared with World Health organization standards (WHO, 2006), to know if the water meets the standards stipulated. Some of the parameters examined include pH, total dissolved solid, total suspended solid, chlorine, conductivity among others. All reagents procured for the analysis were of analytical grade quality. The result indicates that most of physical parameters were within the WHO standards for drinking water except temperature while the chemical parameters pH, lead, phosphate and nitrate among others are also within the WHO tolerable limits. But the overall Water Quality Index (QWI) which took care of the characteristics of water as a whole instead of dealing with standards only indicates that the sampled borehole water ispolluted calculated value being higher than the critical value of 0.1. The study recommended among others that regular monitoring of borehole water is very important, since the area is prone to pollution due to crude oil exploration.

Keywords: Assessment, Physicochemical Characteristics, Borehole, Water Quality, Port Harcourt Metropolis

FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROFITABILITY OF CAT-FISH PRODUCTION IN KADUNA METROPOLIS

Sheyin E.A¹, Kanai E. T¹., &DaudaLa’ah

School of Agricultural Technology

NuhuBamalli Polytechnic Zaria

ABSTRACT

This paper analyze the factors affecting the profitability of catfish in Kaduna Metropolis.  First, the study described the socio-economic characteristics of catfish farmers. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, multiple regression and gross margin. The result showresults showed males (63.3%) are actively involved in fish farming than the females (36.7%). The result further indicated that the majority (80%) of the respondents are learned and educated as most of them had attended tertiary education. The results of the multiple regression model show that five (5) out of the seven (7) independent variables were positively related to the dependent variable (viability and profitability of catfish farmers). And four (4) variables; variable inputs, the amount invested, source of credit, nearness to the market were statistically significant at 5%.In estimating the cost and returns of catfish farmers, the results show that catfish farming is profitable and therefore a viable enterprise. The majority of the farmers make on average a gross margin of ₦719,232. Also, 70% of the farmers made a profit; only 30% of the farmer did not make profit because of the high total fixed cost. Therefore, it is recommended that the government should provide infrastructural facilities, such as electricity, dams, good roads, and an enabling environment for fish farmers and commercials banks should lower their interest’s rates to fish farmers or would be fish farmers in order to boost fish farming.

Keywords. Factors, Profitability, Metropolis, Viability, Gross margin