FOURIER TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Lekara-Bayo, Ifeoma Better & Etuk, Ette Harrison
Department of Mathematics
Rivers State University, Nkpolu-Oroworukwo, Port Harcourt
ABSTRACT
The study Fourier time series analysis of Nigeria gross domestic product from 2005 to 2015 of quarterly data is an important part of modern time series analysis. The study employed Fourier periodic time series analysis and adequately model gross domestic product over time. The detailed background of Nigeria gross domestic product to date is highlighted in the study. The parameters of the model yield an adequate model for the study. A computational algorithm for the model estimation gives better understanding of the procedures for estimation. The descriptive property of the gross domestic product was obtained on the transformed data. The test of unit root was achieved by Augmented Dickey-Fuller of order 1, with ACF, PACF and Residuals plots. The test of significance of the general model was achieved and the P-P Plot indicates that the model fits the data. The research work provides an autoregressive model of order 2, Fourier series model, time series decomposition plot, component analysis, trend analysis plot for linear model of gross domestic product. The research work provides forecast values of five years from 2016 to 2020.
Keyword: Fourier time series analysis, Nigeria GDP, ACF, PACF
