VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCED AND ITS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA BETWEEN “2016 – 2020”

VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCED AND ITS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA BETWEEN “2016 – 2020”

Robinson Amos Ibuchi^1*, Joseph Dagogo² & Benson Tina Ibienebaka³

Department of Mathematics & Statistics,

Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Rivers State, Nigeria Email: ibuchirobinsonamos@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

This research work investigates the relationship between agricultural produced and its economic growth in Nigeria using the VAR (vector autoregression) approach. It adopted the secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria covering the monthly average data period from 2016 to 2020. The unit root test for stationarity found all variable to be stationary at first difference 1(1). Johansen cointegration test conducted found out that there are at least three (3) cointegrating equations at 5% level of significant indicating a long run relationship between the variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) reveals that economy would restore its previous equilibrium by 9.4496 % speed of adjustment. A unit increase in agricultural exports would bring a proportionate increase in the Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria.

Keywords: Agricultural products, Stationary Time Series, VAR (vector autoregression), Johansen cointegration test, and the Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria.