An Example of Intervention: The Case of Ukraine Because of Russian Invasion

An Example of Intervention: The Case of Ukraine Because of Russian Invasion

¹Ette Harrison Etuk, ²Unyime Patrick Udoudo, ³Godwin Nwafor Onyeka

¹Department of Mathematics, Rivers State University,Port Harcourt

²Department of Mathematics / Statistics, Akwa Ibom State PolytechnicIkot Osurua,

³Department of Statistics,Federal University of TechnologyOwerri

Email: etuk.ette@ust.edu.ng

ABSTRACT

For more than a month now Russia has invaded Ukraine militarily. That in itself is an intervention. A lot of time series will show intervention because of this sudden and, perhaps, unexpected attack.  A look at the time series of Ukranian Hryvnia (UAH)/ Nigerian Naira(NGN) from 1 January 2022 to 13 March 2022 shows the emergence of an intervention on 24 February 2022 the day of the invasion. By 13 March 2022 the intervention was still existent. By the algorithm of Box and Tiao (1975) a model of intervention is fitted to the data and shown to be adequate.  This will be useful for planning purposes.

Keywords: Ukrainian Hyrvnia (UAH), Nigerian Naira (NGN), exchange rates, intervention, Russian invasion