Sarima Modeling of Nigerian Food Consumer Price Indices
Toyo Pamela Naden & Ette Harrison Etuk
Department of Mathematics
Rivers State University Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Email: etuk.ette@ust.edu.ng
Corresponding Author: Ette Harrison Etuk
ABSTRACT
The study is an attempt to model Nigerian Food Consumer Price Indices (NFCPI) data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website starting from January, 2003 to November, 2014. The data variables for the study were examined using basic time series concept such as time plot and stationary test. It was observed that there exists seasonality in the trend of the variable. However, test for serial correlogram was conducted using correlogram of the residuals after which the variables were estimated using SARIMA model and a Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) (0, 1, 0) x (1, 1, 1)12 was fitted to the time series variable. The correlogram of the residual model estimation were examined. Since virtually all correlations are zero, the (SARIMA) (0, 1, 0) x (1, 1, 1)12 model of NFCPI is adequate.
